In a recent update to its global cannabis market forecast, BDSA, headquartered in Colorado, has revised its sales projections. The new estimate anticipates that the industry will reach $55 billion in sales by 2027, representing substantial growth from the $32 billion recorded in 2022.

However, this forecast represents a notable decrease compared to BDSA’s earlier projection earlier in the year, which had predicted global marijuana sales to approach $60 billion by 2027. BDSA executives attributed this adjustment to Germany’s decision to deviate from its initial plan for a comprehensive recreational market, instead opting for a more restricted pilot program.

BDSA clarified this shift, stating, “The primary factor in the reduction of BDSA’s forecast for 2027 was the removal of the assumption for a full commercial adult launch in Germany, which had been assumed to begin in 2024 and forecast to reach nearly $3.6 billion in 2023.”

Furthermore, BDSA’s updated forecast also incorporates lower-than-anticipated U.S. cannabis sales in the coming four years, now projected to reach $43 billion by 2027, down from the previous estimate of approximately $45 billion. This adjustment is attributed to a reassessment of various constituent markets and channels, based on 2023 sales data, as well as “slower adult-use growth expectations in more mature markets, with some contribution from weakness in formerly robust medical markets.”

When questioned about the specific challenges faced in California, BDSA pointed to “high taxes, operational costs, and other issues” as factors creating a challenging environment for legal cannabis businesses. Consequently, some businesses have exited the California market over the past year.

One encouraging aspect highlighted by BDSA is the diminishing illicit cannabis spending and the concurrent growth of legal spending in almost all modeled markets. This has been a persistent challenge for California and several other U.S. cannabis markets.

According to the report, the U.S. is still expected to dominate the state-sanctioned marijuana sales market, with the rest of the world projected to contribute just $11.6 billion in 2027, constituting about one-fifth of the total legal cannabis commerce.

BDSA predicts that the primary driver of growth in U.S. marijuana sales over the next four years will be emerging markets, particularly on the East Coast and in the Midwest. Specific markets such as New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, and Missouri are identified as having substantial growth potential. CEO Roy Bingham of BDSA highlighted the expected $2.5 billion markets for both New York and New Jersey and described Michigan as an “outlier” likely to achieve $3.8 billion in sales by 2027.

However, the forecast also indicates challenges for mature markets like California and Colorado, with stagnating or declining sales. BDSA anticipates modest growth in California by 2025, with sales projected to surpass $5.2 billion in 2027. In Colorado, sales are stabilizing, expected to reach $1.6 billion this year following a decline in 2022, and then experiencing minimal growth to $1.7 billion by 2027.

North of the border, Canada’s legal cannabis sales are forecasted to rise by 9% this year, reaching $4.6 billion, with the potential to reach $5.3 billion within four years.

Regarding the rest of the world, BDSA’s projections suggest that international sales, excluding Canada, will amount to about $2.4 billion in 2023, surging to $6.3 billion by 2027. Notable international markets apart from Canada include Mexico, expected to achieve $1.5 billion in sales by 2027, and Germany, which is in the process of implementing an adult-use cannabis pilot program.

Source: Green Market Report

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In a significant and up-to-date policy shift, the NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) medical committee has recommended that college athletes should no longer face penalties for using cannabis. This progressive stance reflects the evolving landscape of cannabis regulations across the United States. The committee has firmly asserted that drug testing efforts should be redirected towards detecting performance-enhancing substances, leaving cannabis use without punitive measures. This recommendation comes after the committee conducted a thorough review of existing policies and solicited input from member organizations. It anticipates that the final decision on this matter will be made in the fall, following consultations and legislative processes within each of the NCAA’s governing bodies.

The basis for the medical committee’s recommendation is rooted in insights derived from the 2022 Summit on Cannabinoids in College Athletics. During this summit, experts in the field shared their research findings and policy perspectives related to cannabis. The consensus among these experts was that cannabis does not confer any performance-enhancing advantages, and a harm-reduction approach to its use is most effective when implemented at the school level.

In addition to advocating for the removal of cannabis from the list of banned substances, the committee is proposing a redirection of drug testing efforts towards substances that genuinely enhance athletic performance. They also stress the importance of educating student-athletes about the potential health risks associated with contemporary cannabis use and the various methods of consumption.

This move by the NCAA medical committee is part of a broader trend of sports organizations reconsidering their approaches to cannabis use in light of decriminalization efforts sweeping across the United States. The National Basketball Association (NBA), for instance, recently reached a tentative agreement with the NBA Players Association in April, stipulating that players would no longer be subjected to testing or penalties for cannabis use. This marks a significant departure from the NBA’s previous policy, which included a mandatory treatment program after the first offense, a $25,000 fine for the second violation, and a five-game suspension after the third offense, as reported by Forbes. Notably, former NBA player Al Harrington, in an interview with GQ in 2021, estimated that around 85% of players in the league either use cannabis or some form of it. He emphasized that for many athletes, cannabis serves as a safe and alternative way to cope with the immense stress and pressures they face.

The case of Sha’carri Richardson, a former standout track athlete from LSU, further underscores the contentiousness surrounding cannabis use in sports. Richardson tested positive for THC metabolites, a component found in cannabis, ahead of the 2021 Tokyo Olympics and was subsequently disqualified from competing. She later revealed that she had used cannabis to help cope with the pressures of performing on the world’s biggest stage and the recent loss of her mother.

President Joe Biden, when asked about Richardson’s suspension, acknowledged that while the rules were known to all participants, the broader question of whether those rules should remain in place warrants consideration. The public discourse surrounding Richardson’s case, along with the evolving views on cannabis use, has contributed to an ongoing reevaluation of policies within athletic organizations.

As the NCAA medical committee progresses towards reforming its stance on cannabis, it signifies a progressive and empathetic approach to the well-being of student-athletes. By shifting the focus of drug testing efforts towards performance-enhancing substances, while simultaneously providing education on the risks associated with cannabis use, the committee aims to foster a safer and more informed environment for college athletes. As discussions continue and decisions are finalized, the NCAA has the opportunity to set a precedent that prioritizes the evolving needs and perspectives of its student-athletes in an ever-changing landscape of drug policies and societal attitudes.

Source: Business Insider

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